Follow the appointments

Historical Field Umpire Matrix 2025

A frozen 2025 prediction tested against the supplied final rankings.

How this bit of fun works

The strength of each GFL, BFL and GDFL senior match is calculated from the reconstructed ladder positions at 10 August 2025 and how closely matched they are. Competition levels overlap, so a leading BFL game can outrank a lower GFL game and a leading GDFL game can outrank a lower BFL game.

The top and bottom 33% of each ladder are treated as bands, rounded up to whole teams. A top-band versus bottom-band match receives no positive ladder or closeness bonus. A match between two bottom-band teams receives a 5-point penalty from its league base score.

Matrix score = average quality of the umpire’s best 6 senior appointments through the cutoff. A 2024 continuity bonus then adds up to 8 points, tapering across the supplied 2024 rankings. Observer data was not recorded in the 2025 cache, so observation counts and bonuses are completely excluded. The final 2025 rankings are added only after the prediction is calculated and cannot influence the Matrix score.

Historical ladder sources: GFL · BFL · GDFL

27 predictions matched to a final 2025 rank
7.7 average positions from the final rank
13 predictions within 4 positions
1 exact rank predictions

Row guide: green is within 4 positions of the final rank; red is more than 10 positions away.

271 senior games ranked. 53 later games excluded. Ladder positions frozen at 10 August 2025. “Top 25%” shows how often an umpire received a game in the highest quarter of the cutoff game rankings. Select an umpire row to expand their senior field appointments.

What the columns mean
Rank
The Matrix prediction at the 10 August 2025 cutoff, using only appointments available by that date and the 2024 continuity adjustment.
Field umpire
Field umpires with more than five combined GFL, BFL and GDFL senior appointments. Select a row to expand the umpire’s senior field season.
Matrix score
The predicted score: 2025 evidence available by the cutoff plus the tapered 2024 continuity adjustment.
2025 evidence
Average strength of the umpire’s best 6 senior appointments by the cutoff. No observer contribution is included.
2024 rank
The supplied 2024 finishing rank. It contributes a modest tapered continuity adjustment.
Movement
How many positions the predicted rank is above or below the umpire’s 2024 rank.
Actual 2025
The supplied final 2025 ranking. This is displayed only as the back-test answer key and does not affect the Matrix score.
Prediction gap
Actual 2025 rank minus the predicted rank. A positive number means the Matrix predicted the umpire higher than the final result.
Top 25%
Number of appointments in the strongest quarter of GFL, BFL and GDFL senior games ranked at the cutoff.
Best game
The strongest senior appointment received by the cutoff. Lower is stronger; #1 is the strongest ranked game.
GFL
Number of 2025 GFL senior field appointments through 10 August.
BFL
Number of 2025 BFL senior field appointments through 10 August.
GDFL
Number of 2025 GDFL senior field appointments through 10 August.
Total
Combined GFL, BFL and GDFL senior field appointments through 10 August 2025.
Trend
Compares the strength of the three most recent senior appointments with the umpire’s season average: Rising, Steady or Easing.
The Matrix prediction at the 10 August 2025 cutoff, using only appointments available by that date and the 2024 continuity adjustment. Field umpires with more than five combined GFL, BFL and GDFL senior appointments. Select a row to expand the umpire’s senior field season. The predicted score: 2025 evidence available by the cutoff plus the tapered 2024 continuity adjustment. Average strength of the umpire’s best 6 senior appointments by the cutoff. No observer contribution is included. The supplied 2024 finishing rank. It contributes a modest tapered continuity adjustment. How many positions the predicted rank is above or below the umpire’s 2024 rank. The supplied final 2025 ranking. This is displayed only as the back-test answer key and does not affect the Matrix score. Actual 2025 rank minus the predicted rank. A positive number means the Matrix predicted the umpire higher than the final result. Number of appointments in the strongest quarter of GFL, BFL and GDFL senior games ranked at the cutoff. The strongest senior appointment received by the cutoff. Lower is stronger; #1 is the strongest ranked game. Number of 2025 GFL senior field appointments through 10 August. Number of 2025 BFL senior field appointments through 10 August. Number of 2025 GDFL senior field appointments through 10 August. Combined GFL, BFL and GDFL senior field appointments through 10 August 2025. Compares the strength of the three most recent senior appointments with the umpire’s season average: Rising, Steady or Easing.
1 95.8 89.6 #7 ↑ 6 #12 +11 8 #1 9 4 4 17 Easing
2 95.8 89.3 #6 ↑ 4 #1 -1 11 #1 11 6 2 19 Rising
3 95.2 87.2 #1 ↓ 2 #2 -1 8 #4 9 4 3 16 Rising
4 91.1 85.5 #9 ↑ 5 #4 0 9 #3 13 2 1 16 Easing
5 90.0 83.2 #5 — #7 +2 6 #7 7 4 4 15 Rising
6 89.5 84.6 #11 ↑ 5 #9 +3 8 #4 8 6 4 18 Rising
7 88.5 87.6 #24 ↑ 17 #16 +9 10 #1 11 4 2 17 Rising
8 88.5 80.8 #2 ↓ 6 #3 -5 5 #9 13 2 2 17 Rising
9 88.0 80.9 #4 ↓ 5 #8 -1 6 #6 6 4 7 17 Steady
10 84.9 81.5 #16 ↑ 6 #24 +14 8 #9 9 4 4 17 Rising
11 84.5 82.3 #20 ↑ 9 #15 +4 8 #4 9 3 1 13 Rising
12 84.4 80.7 #15 ↑ 3 #6 -6 7 #3 8 4 4 16 Rising
13 84.0 78.8 #10 ↓ 3 — — 3 #7 8 3 3 14 Rising
14 83.7 83.7 — New #18 +4 6 #4 7 6 3 16 Rising
15 82.4 78.4 #14 ↓ 1 #11 -4 6 #15 7 6 5 18 Rising
16 82.0 80.8 #23 ↑ 7 #20 +4 9 #9 8 7 3 18 Easing
17 81.0 81.0 — New #26 +9 6 #11 6 5 5 16 Steady
18 79.6 74.9 #12 ↓ 6 — — 4 #11 7 4 2 13 Easing
19 78.8 76.4 #19 — #10 -9 5 #1 11 3 4 18 Steady
20 78.7 76.8 #21 ↑ 1 #13 -7 5 #6 6 4 8 18 Easing
21 78.3 76.7 #22 ↑ 1 #5 -16 4 #4 8 2 3 13 Rising
22 78.0 77.7 #26 ↑ 4 #19 -3 5 #1 5 5 5 15 Rising
23 75.5 75.5 — New — — 5 #7 5 4 6 15 Rising
24 73.5 73.5 — New — — 5 #3 3 5 5 13 Easing
25 72.6 72.6 — New #22 -3 4 #25 5 3 5 13 Rising
26 70.6 70.6 — New #25 -1 4 #38 4 5 6 15 Steady
27 68.3 68.3 — New — — 4 #34 1 9 3 13 Easing
28 67.2 67.2 #27 ↓ 1 #14 -14 3 #12 3 5 4 12 Steady
29 66.0 66.0 — New — — 2 #43 4 6 3 13 Rising
30 65.7 65.7 — New #17 -13 2 #31 2 4 11 17 Steady
31 65.1 62.0 #17 ↓ 14 — — 1 #12 6 5 4 15 Rising
32 64.9 64.9 — New — — 3 #37 6 8 2 16 Rising
33 64.6 64.6 — New — — 2 #34 4 4 7 15 Easing
34 63.3 63.3 — New — — 2 #37 6 2 9 17 Steady
35 61.9 61.9 — New — — 2 #51 2 6 2 10 Easing
36 60.6 60.6 — New — — 1 #6 3 1 8 12 Easing
37 60.4 60.4 — New — — 1 #37 1 2 7 10 Rising
38 60.4 60.4 — New #21 -17 1 #33 4 2 7 13 Rising
39 59.2 59.2 — New — — 1 #43 0 5 9 14 Easing
40 59.2 59.2 — New — — 1 #43 2 6 4 12 Rising
41 58.6 57.9 #25 ↓ 16 — — 1 #21 4 6 4 14 Steady
42 58.2 58.2 — New — — 1 #48 2 4 8 14 Rising
43 57.6 57.6 — New — — 1 #58 0 7 5 12 Easing
44 57.3 57.3 — New #27 -17 1 #50 1 4 6 11 Easing
45 57.3 57.3 — New — — 2 #46 1 5 5 11 Steady
46 54.7 54.7 — New — — 0 #82 1 1 5 7 Easing
47 53.9 53.9 — New — — 1 #34 0 2 6 8 Rising
48 52.6 52.6 — New — — 0 #94 0 5 8 13 Rising
49 51.6 51.6 — New — — 0 #72 0 5 6 11 Steady
50 51.4 51.4 — New — — 1 #55 0 5 4 9 Rising
51 50.7 50.7 — New — — 0 #79 0 5 2 7 Rising
52 49.6 49.6 — New — — 1 #66 2 1 7 10 Rising
53 44.5 44.5 — New #23 -30 0 #154 0 1 8 9 Easing
54 41.3 41.3 — New — — 0 #108 0 3 5 8 Rising
55 40.7 40.7 — New — — 0 #80 1 2 4 7 Rising

2024 umpire rankings

Reference table supplied for the previous season. These rankings contribute to the tapered continuity adjustment used in the Matrix score above.

Rank Umpire
1 Daniel Wilson
2 Steve Guarnaccia
3 Henry Buckley
4 Hamish Irvin
5 David Chaston
6 Chris Jones
7 Tim Callander
8 Liam Clark
9 Errol Burns
10 Joshua Brown
11 Jack ONeill
12 Tom Janke
14 Norm Douglas
15 Stephen Ritchie
16 Adam Jones
17 Bradley Rankin
18 Chris McWaters
19 Jake McLeod
20 Paul McElhinney
21 Thomas Hitchcock
22 Scott McLeod
23 John Rees
24 Shay Huby
25 Tim Ellis
26 Diarmuid Quinlan
27 Mark Nolan

2025 final umpire rankings

Back-test answer key only. These final rankings are attached after the Matrix prediction is calculated and do not contribute any score.

Rank Umpire
1 Chris Jones
2 Daniel Wilson
3 Steve Guarnaccia
4 Errol Burns
5 Scott McLeod
6 Stephen Ritchie
7 David Chaston
8 Hamish Irvin
9 Jack ONeill
10 Jake McLeod
11 Norm Douglas
12 Tim Callander
13 Thomas Hitchcock
14 Mark Nolan
15 Paul McElhinney
16 Shay Huby
17 Mark Davison
18 Brendan Beck
19 Diarmuid Quinlan
20 John Rees
21 Jess Crucitti
22 Nathan Coppock
23 Rohan Smith
24 Adam Jones
25 Patrick Sullivan
26 Jess Heath
27 John Tatnell